Presentation Title: Prediction of Student Achievement Through Oral-Reading Fluency Scores

Abstract: The No Child Left Behind Act (Public Law 107-110) emphasis on adequate progress monitored by standardized assessments has amplified a focus on student acquisition of required skills. One fundamental component of educational skills is a student’s ability to read. Pertinent reading skills can be accessed through a student’s achievement on Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) measures. ORF probes are used to identify at-risk students so that specific intervention strategies can be implemented.

Information on the effectiveness of using these ORF measures to predict achievement on high stakes assessments is critical for data-based decision making, however, research on the application of ORF predictive validity findings across assessment tools, specific academic abilities, and student intervention status is currently limited.

This study will investigate the relationship between ORF scores and reading achievement. Study participants will include 600 students across nine elementary schools utilizing the Response to Intervention (RTI) model. Data will be collected from the online databases AZRTI and Datacentral. Students’ ORF scores will be gathered for their first through third grade years; SAT-10 scores for the second grade year, and AIMS scores for the third grade year.

Pearson product-moment correlations will be used to assess the relationship of ORF probes and specific reading skills subsets from the AIMS and SAT-10 including: (a) The reading process of print concepts, phonics, vocabulary, and comprehension strategies; (b) comprehending the elements of literature as well as the historical and cultural aspects of literary text; and (c) comprehending expository, functional, and persuasive informational text. Additionally, hierarchical multiple regression analyses will be used to assess predictive validity of ORF scores on achievement. Independent variables will include the ORF curriculum-based measures from the fall, winter, and spring administrations across the three years. The criterion variables will include the AIMS and SAT-10 total scores. Each additional block will be evaluated after controlling for the impact of the previously considered blocks. The models will be separated by intervention status.

Data collection is currently in progress, but will be completed within the next few months. Study results will indicate the relationship between ORF probes and specific reading skill areas. Furthermore, results will indicate the predictive validity of ORF probes on student performance on state and norm-referenced measures. Finally, results will indicate how intervention status influences information obtained from ORF probes. The results of this study will provide implications regarding the use of ORF probes in predicting standardized achievement test performance, as well as the moderating effects of specific reading interventions.

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